Over 3 million Americans could lose health coverage under the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion if President-elect Donald Trump withdraws funds, triggering automatic eliminations in certain states.
Cutting federal expenditure is one of Trump’s many aims for his second term, and while he hasn’t clearly stated his plans for Medicaid, others believe he would try to cut funding.
Medicaid provides almost free health care coverage to millions of America’s poorest children and adults, while Medicare provides health insurance to the elderly and disabled. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is an Obama-era program that provides health insurance coverage to millions of Americans who do not qualify for government-sponsored health care but do not have insurance through their employers.
The Trump administration may choose not to execute recent Medicaid regulations, which include expanding eligibility to millions of low-income people who do not have access to employer-provided health care.
According to The KFF, formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit organization that investigates health care issues, and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families, if this happened, at least nine states would lose insurance almost immediately.
According to the group, the Affordable Care Act encouraged states to expand Medicaid programs to cover more individuals, leading forty states to offer health insurance. In exchange, the federal government committed to bear 90% of the costs of expanding the population.
However, numerous states have automatic trigger laws that require Medicaid expansions to stop if federal funding falls below a certain level, according to the groups.
KFF lists these states as Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Utah, and Virginia.
The majority of the nine states’ triggers kick off when federal assistance falls below the 90% threshold, although Arizona’s trigger is less than 80%.
Researchers projected that in states with triggers, between 3.1 million and 3.7 million people would lose their insurance coverage.
Renuka Tipirneni, an associate professor at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health, warned the audience that if Congress cuts federal funding, Medicaid expansion would be in jeopardy in all states that have opted in, including those without trigger laws, because state legislatures would be required to make up the difference.
Tipirneni stated that state politics would influence the decision to continue or reverse the expansion.
KFF stated that six of the nine states with trigger laws voted for Trump in the 2024 election.
Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act, an Obama administration law that expanded Medicaid and health care access for those without insurance, during his first term.
Trump has changed his stance, declaring his intention to maintain the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, while implementing improvements. He’s been much less detailed about his Medicaid plans.
He chose Mehmet Oz, a famous cardiac surgeon turned talk show host and lifestyle expert, to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.