Tammy Baldwin wins third Senate term as Donald Trump becomes President

Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin secured another term, albeit with her slimmest winning margin to date. The race was called by the Associated Press on Wednesday at 12:42 p.m. Baldwin’s Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, fell short by less than one percentage point, trailing Trump’s total by over 50,000 votes. This highlights the influence of split-ticket voters in Wisconsin, as Democratic Governor Tony Evers also won re-election in 2022, while Senator Ron Johnson secured a third term with a narrower victory.

In a significant achievement, Democrats have successfully shattered the Republican supermajority in the state Senate. They have managed to flip enough seats, which now positions them for a potential takeover of the chamber in 2026. Furthermore, the Democrats have made substantial progress in narrowing the Republican majority in the Assembly. Notably, they have elected a representative from Sheboygan for the first time since the state’s legislative districts were gerrymandered by Republicans in 2011. It is worth mentioning that despite these gains, some Republican incumbents have managed to secure victory in districts that were more favorable to Democrats.

In West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump addressed a crowd at Mar-a-Lago, following the Associated Press’ projection that he would secure a crucial victory in Pennsylvania. This state was deemed a must-win for Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to Trump, America has granted us an extraordinary and influential mandate.

According to the Associated Press, Trump’s victory is being hailed as an incredible comeback for a former president who, just four years ago, refused to accept defeat, incited a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, faced felony charges, and miraculously survived two assassination attempts.

The victory affirms his unapologetic and confrontational approach to politics. He launched scathing attacks against his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, using derogatory language that was often misogynistic and racist. In his campaign, he painted a bleak and exaggerated picture of a nation overwhelmed by violent migrants. This crude rhetoric, combined with a portrayal of extreme masculinity, struck a chord with a segment of angry voters, primarily men, in a country that is heavily divided.

As the president, he has made a commitment to pursue an agenda that focuses on significantly transforming the federal government and seeking revenge against those he considers his adversaries.

The election season has been historically tumultuous and competitive, marked by two assassination attempts targeting Trump and a last-minute change in the Democratic nominee before the party’s convention. As Trump prepares to assume office on Jan. 20, he will be faced with a range of challenges, including heightened political polarization and global crises that are putting America’s influence abroad to the test.

In a notable victory, Biden has emerged as the winner against Harris, who happens to be the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket. This marks the second instance where he has defeated a female opponent in a general election. Harris, currently serving as the vice president, secured the top position after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race due to concerns about his age. Although Harris initially garnered considerable support for her campaign, she faced challenges in convincing disenchanted voters that she symbolized a departure from an unpopular administration within a limited timeframe.

Harris’ campaign manager made an announcement earlier in the evening that Harris would be speaking to her supporters on Wednesday.

Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral College votes were called for Trump by The Associated Press at 4:34 a.m. on Wednesday. Earlier on Tuesday, a tabulator issue prompted election workers in Milwaukee to restart their count of absentee ballots.

Wisconsin’s high-profile statewide races were called by the Associated Press at the following times:

• • 2018 U.S. Senate race: Tuesday, Nov. 6, 8:48 p.m.
  • 2018 gubernatorial race: Wednesday, Nov. 7, 1:24 a.m.
  • 2020 presidential race: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 1:16 p.m.
  • 2022 gubernatorial race: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 1:12 a.m.
  • 2022 U.S. Senate race: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 11:46 a.m.

Make sure to take a look at the Wisconsin Watch voter guide, which provides the Associated Press election results for every race in Wisconsin.

Republicans poised to hold 6-2 House edge

The Republicans were in a strong position to secure victories in all six seats that they currently hold in Wisconsin’s House delegation.

Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden currently holds a significant 11,000-vote lead over his Democratic challenger, Rebecca Cooke, in the closely contested 3rd Congressional District race. With 99% of votes reported, the Associated Press has called winners in all other races except for this one.

Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore, both Democrats, successfully defended their seats in the recent elections. On the Republican side, Bryan Steil, Scott Fitzgerald, Glenn Grothman, and Tom Tiffany emerged victorious in their respective races.

Newcomer Republican Tony Wied expressed his gratitude towards his family, friends, and Trump as he delivered a victory speech to a passionate crowd of supporters at The Legacy Hotel in Green Bay, Wisconsin. With an impressive lead of nearly 15 points, he emerged victorious over Democratic candidate Kristin Lyerly.

Wied’s triumph in Wisconsin’s predominantly Republican 8th Congressional District was expected. The district had consistently favored Republican candidate Michael Gallagher, who had secured comfortable victories in every election from 2016 to 2022.

Wied attributed a significant portion of his success to the endorsement he received from Trump. According to Wied, Trump’s support during the campaign was unparalleled.

Local Republican candidates felt confident about the election even before any significant results were reported from Green Bay precincts.

Patrick Buckley, a candidate for the 89th Assembly District, believes that the hard work put into reaching out to voters and canvassing will ultimately yield positive results.

“We have done an outstanding job, and I hope that the voters will recognize our efforts,” expressed Buckley. “I believe that Republicans will have a favorable outcome tonight.”

People at Cooke’s watch party were engaged in the nail-biting battle over Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District throughout the night on Tuesday.

The campaign displayed the projected incoming results prominently at the front of the event in downtown Eau Claire. A few mild cheers erupted as Cooke took a slight lead, but by 10 p.m., the enthusiasm for result updates dwindled.

Cooke chose not to deliver a victory or concession speech during Tuesday’s event, which concluded well before the final outcome was determined. However, when asked about the possibility of an unfavorable result, Cooke expressed her intention to inform her supporters that they had run an exceptional race.

“We have made sure to leave no stone unturned,” Cooke emphasized. “We have actively involved individuals who often feel excluded from the political process, and I take immense pride in the efforts we have made in this regard.”

Citizenship voting amendment passes

Wisconsin voters have given their approval to a constitutional amendment that bars foreign nationals from participating in the state’s voting process.

Republicans throughout the nation have been urging voters to embrace constitutional amendments that explicitly bar non-U.S. citizens from voting. This push came in response to the District of Columbia and certain municipalities in California, Maryland, and Vermont granting voting rights to non-citizens in local elections.

According to the Wisconsin Constitution, voting is a right granted to every U.S. citizen who is at least 18 years old. However, this language is being revised to specify that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in federal, state, and local elections that take place in Wisconsin.

According to Ballotpedia, the amendment appeared on the ballot in seven other states this cycle, including North Dakota, Alabama, Florida, Colorado, Ohio, and Louisiana, all of which have already adopted it.

Democrats argue that these measures could potentially create obstacles for eligible voters and mislead the public into thinking that noncitizen voting is a much larger issue than it actually is. While data from various states suggests that noncitizen voting is rare, Republican officials in Alabama, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas have drawn attention to voter registration reviews that have uncovered instances of potential noncitizen voting.

Republicans return smaller Assembly majority as incumbents win new districts

Despite less favorable voting patterns and significant Democratic funding, Republicans won a majority in the Wisconsin Assembly, extending the GOP’s 13-year dominance of the lower chamber for another two years.

Incumbents contributed to Republicans’ win on Tuesday. According to unofficial results, Republican Rep. Todd Novak of Dodgeville defeated Democratic candidate Elizabeth Grabe in a district that a Wisconsin Watch study of past voting patterns indicated was about 56% Democratic. Rep. Pat Snyder, R-Schofield, easily defeated Democratic rival Yee Leng Xiong in a district where a Wisconsin Watch analysis found only 2% more Republicans than Democrats.

The election results were a setback for Democrats, who had hoped to reclaim a majority in the Assembly for the first time in more than a decade after the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Republican-gerrymandered vote patterns last year.

In the months leading up to the election, Democrats were sure they could reclaim the majority. Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, told reporters at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago that her party would win a 52-seat majority in the Assembly this October. They missed the mark on Tuesday.

Early on Wednesday, Trevor Ford, a spokeswoman for the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, issued a straightforward assessment of the results: “Wisconsin Assembly Republicans will hold the majority.”

As of early Wednesday morning, we did not know the exact size of the majority.

There were a few positive developments for Democrats, who seemed to be returning to Madison in January with stronger numbers. Joe Sheehan defeated Republican Rep. Amy Binsfeld in the 26th Assembly District, which consolidated the city of Sheboygan into a single assembly district.

Democrats break GOP supermajority in state Senate

Unofficial results indicate that Democrats have managed to break the Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate. This development is significant as it curtails the overwhelming control the GOP had over the chamber, which posed a threat to the veto authority held by Democratic Governor Tony Evers.

The final tally of seats each party will hold in January is still uncertain as of early Wednesday morning. However, Republicans have successfully secured the necessary 17 seats for a majority. On the other hand, Democrats have managed to flip at least two seats and are currently leading in the vote counts for two additional seats. This has effectively reduced the Republican’s current 22-seat supermajority.

In a surprising turn of events, the 14th Senate District witnessed a significant change. This Democratic-leaning toss-up district, which spans from the Madison area to Portage, Wisconsin Dells, Baraboo, Reedsburg, and Richland Center, saw Democrat Sarah Keyeski emerge victorious. Unofficial returns indicate that she defeated incumbent Sen. Joan Ballweg by a narrow margin of 2 points.

In the 30th Senate District, a noteworthy election took place due to redistricting. This resulted in the relocation of incumbent Republican Sen. Eric Wimberger to the 2nd Senate District, where he will take over from retiring moderate Republican Sen. Rob Cowles. In this district, Democrat Jamie Wall, a business consultant and three-time Democratic candidate, emerged victorious, defeating Republican Allouez village president Jim Rafter.

In a statement to Wisconsin Watch, Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein, a Democrat from Middleton, expressed optimism for their candidates who are still waiting for final vote tallies, stating that Senate Democrats have successfully shattered the Republicans’ artificially created supermajority.

Results in the 8th and 18th districts indicated that Democrats are on the verge of making significant gains in their pursuit to diminish the GOP majority. However, as of early Wednesday morning, the outcomes of these races remain uncertain. These potential gains hold the potential to bolster Democrats’ chances of securing a majority in 2026, when the remaining 17 Senate seats that have recently been redrawn will be up for four-year terms.

The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate’s spokesperson did not promptly respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

Sheboygan incumbent loses Assembly seat without local GOP support in newly drawn toss-up district

The battle to retain her Sheboygan seat became more challenging for a freshman Republican Assembly member when she lost the backing of the Sheboygan County GOP earlier this year. This internal conflict may indicate a shift in the landscape of the Republican Party in Wisconsin.

According to Russ Otten, the local party chair, Freshman Rep. Amy Binsfeld, R-Sheboygan, has expressed her views on the local party, considering it extremist. In January, she distanced herself from the party due to its anti-abortion stance and concerns raised by its members regarding election integrity.

Otten expressed astonishment at the fact that a person running as a Republican in a closely contested race would hold such a belief.

In September, the county GOP shared text messages revealing that Binsfeld had requested the party to distribute her campaign signs. However, they refused to do so after she declined to meet with the party’s leaders, as confirmed by Otten.

“I think it would be a good idea to consult with all Republican voters in the 26th District before making that decision, considering that you would be giving up a seat to the Democrats in November,” Binsfeld expressed in their correspondence. “I request that signs be made available specifically for Republican voters.”

Binsfeld did not respond immediately to Wisconsin Watch’s request for comment.

According to Otten, she is not pleased with the direction our county party has taken, which she believes has become driven by patriotism. Otten views her as an ally of Robin Vos in Madison, and they both represent what she perceives as a larger issue.

Republican incumbent Terry Binsfeld was defeated by Joe Sheehan, a Democratic newcomer. Sheehan made the decision to run after the city of Sheboygan was reunited due to new legislative maps. Previously, the city was split in half to secure two Republican seats through gerrymandering. The district is now considered a toss-up with a slight Democratic lean.

Milwaukee setback stands out in otherwise smooth Wisconsin election

Polling stations in Wisconsin have closed following an eventful Election Day. The highlight of the day was a human error in Milwaukee that led election officials to recount 31,000 absentee ballots. This mistake has the potential to delay the state’s final results by several hours.

In Milwaukee, Paulina Gutiérrez, the election chief, estimated that the city’s tallying of absentee ballots would extend into Wednesday morning. This was partly due to her decision on Tuesday afternoon to have election workers recount 31,000 absentee ballots. The reason behind this was that some staff members forgot to lock the tabulator doors in the early morning.

Those panel doors, which cover the on/off switch and often a slot for USB devices, must be shut during counting for security reasons, while other security procedures ensured no tampering.

Jeff Fleming, a city spokeswoman, explained that they decided to restart the count “out of an abundance of caution.”

Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe said the commission had no comment on the city’s decision to rerun the batch of votes, but she applauded the city’s transparency throughout the process.

Following Gutiérrez’s ruling, the city issued an all-call to all Milwaukee employees to assist election officials in counting previously tabulated ballots. According to city spokesperson Caroline Reinwald, between 30 and 50 city employees from health, fire, and other agencies volunteered.

“Things are moving really smoothly right now and quickly, so hopefully this isn’t actually that much of a delay,” she told me.

However, Republican leaders blasted the oversight that resulted in the second count. U.S. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin described Milwaukee’s central count as “grotesquely disorganized.” State GOP Chair Brian Schimming remarked of election officials, “You had one job,” and that the election process had gone “ridiculously wrong.”

Johnson said his concerns about Milwaukee election officials’ control may be relieved if they showed him video footage from the central counting location as well as documents from the first and second counts of the 31,000 absentee ballots, including how they were divided by party. Municipal officials claim that although there are video broadcasts of the central count, they did not export vote totals in the manner Johnson requested, despite each vote having a paper trail.

The Republican National Committee filed a complaint on Election Day in Milwaukee, alleging that city election stations were denying access to GOP election monitors. At a hearing on Tuesday, the GOP backtracked on its assertions, admitting there were no difficulties.

Outside of Milwaukee, election authorities had little concern.

Thornapple, a northern Wisconsin community that previously faced a Justice Department lawsuit for refusing to employ accessible voting machines, had a voting machine in use on Tuesday, according to Erin Webster, a local resident and election observer.

The state saw a rise in early in-person voting, but election officials said Tuesday was still extremely busy. Melissa Kono, a clerk in the small northern Wisconsin town of Burnside since 2013, said it was the most intensive election she’d ever run in terms of turnout.

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