The Winter Outlook for the upcoming months in terms of temperature and precipitation trends, as well as the expected changes from the drought conditions, has been revealed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the StormTracker7 Weather Team in Wheeling, West Virginia.
EL NINO VS. LA NINA?
This Article Includes
While many elements are considered when generating a seasonal forecast, one of the most important influences on the winter forecast is whether El Niño or La Niña conditions are likely to occur. El Nino circumstances occur when the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual. La Nina is the polar opposite of El Nino, typified by cooling waters in the Equatorial Pacific. Both can have an impact on our local weather conditions.
La Nina conditions are likely to materialize late this fall. This often results in a more northerly storm track, which causes warmer and drier temperatures in the southern United States and cooler and wetter conditions in the northern United States.
Temperature Outlook
During a La Nina event, the Ohio Valley typically experiences slightly above average temperatures. As we look ahead to the upcoming winter, the temperature forecast is indicating above average conditions.
Precipitation Outlook
During a La Nina event, the storm track tends to shift northward. This often causes wetter-than-average conditions in the north and drought in the south. The current precipitation projection for the approaching winter points to above-average precipitation in the far northern half of our observation area, with no major climatological factors pushing in either direction for the rest of it.
Drought Conditions Moving Forward
The news isn’t great for our ongoing drought. Recharging the groundwater supply would be beneficial, and a wetter winter could help with that. It would also be a relief to see a return to average monthly precipitation as June, July, August, and September all experienced below-average precipitation totals.
Despite the prediction of a slightly warmer winter with average precipitation, a few noteworthy events can still make it a memorable season. We will ensure to keep you updated on any changes that Ohio Valley weather may bring in the upcoming months.
