A hydrologic outlook was issued at 2:27 p.m. on Monday for Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, and Houston counties.
“As we anticipate the arrival of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the coming days, a significant amount of rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The current forecast indicates that the area will likely receive 3 to 6 inches of rain, with the possibility of localized totals reaching as high as 10 inches.
This could potentially result in flash flooding, some of which could be locally significant. It’s worth noting that the ground in the western areas, particularly along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system, is already saturated. These areas have experienced rainfall 3 to 7 inches above normal in the past 2 weeks. In contrast, eastern areas have seen rainfall levels near or below normal. Consequently, the western areas are more vulnerable to flash flooding, including urban and poor drainage areas.
The Weather Prediction Center has identified most of our forecast area as having a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a level 3 out of 4. This is quite remarkable considering that the event is still 3 to 4 days away, underscoring the severity and confidence in the potential heavy rainfall. We anticipate the need to issue a Flood Watch on Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area.
In terms of riverine impacts, there is a possibility of minor river flooding at various forecast points based on the current rainfall forecast. If certain areas receive more than 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river flooding could occur.
However, it’s important to note that river forecasts only account for the next 48 hours of rainfall and do not yet include any potential rainfall from the tropical system. We urge everyone to stay tuned for further updates,” shares the National Weather Service.
